Situational Update
Per the Times of Israel, a ballistic missile fired by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen impacted on the grounds of Ben Gurion Airport on Sunday morning, injuring six people, none of them seriously. The attack marked the first time a Houthi missile had impacted within the grounds of the airport. Most major foreign airlines on Sunday canceled their scheduled flights to Tel Aviv. United Airlines suspended its twice-daily service between New York and Tel Aviv through May 8, as the carrier said it is assessing the situation.
Also, the IDF said Saturday night that it was sending out tens of thousands of call-up orders to reservists, as the military was set to significantly expand its offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The tens of thousands of reservists being called up would begin to show up in the military in the coming week, according to the IDF. The reservists have likely been called up multiple times already during the war.
Israel/Middle East Related Articles
Where does the Gaza War go next? by Andrew Fox on his Substack
It seems that, in Gaza, Israel is back to where it was in December 2024, but now wearing brass knuckles.
IDF hands [are] unbound and [there is] an increase in targeting and seizure of territory within Gaza itself.
Israeli forces have rapidly expanded their ground operations, issued mass evacuation orders to civilians, and advanced into central and southern Gaza. By early April, Israeli troops had seized or depopulated significant portions of Gaza’s territory, establishing “buffer zones” along the Strip’s edges and in the South, resulting in the new Morag corridor.
The stated military goal is the “total destruction” of Hamas and the prevention of its resurgence, as Netanyahu reiterated, alongside the recovery of all Israeli hostages. Israel is likely to end up with one but not the other, and... a moment of crisis will arise when they must choose. Hamas has no incentive to release the hostages without a binding guarantee of the end of the war.
Hamas has no incentive to release the hostages without a binding guarantee of the end of the war. Their objective is survival.
Weakened after months of attrition, they depend on hit-and-run attacks, ambushes, improvised explosives, and the substantial remnants of their tunnel network.
For now, this is a war of attrition. Israel is deploying maximal force to break Hamas militarily and prevent any future threats from Gaza, while Hamas is digging in, both literally and figuratively, to ensure its survival and maintain leverage over the hostages.
In a rare public display of dissent, hundreds of Palestinians staged protests against Hamas, blaming the group for bringing more suffering.
Even as Israeli forces occupy areas, Hamas insurgents may persist through tunnels, launching periodic attacks.
Strategic scenarios
Protracted war of attrition: The most immediate outlook is a continued grinding conflict through mid-2025. A war of attrition will be a battle of strategic patience that will be difficult for Israel to win. Hamas, though significantly weakened, will continue guerrilla tactics that prolong low-level resistance. Hamas will rely on these asymmetric tactics to make the occupation costly and keep the spirit of resistance alive.
This scenario is rife with humanitarian and reputational risks for Israel, as well as placing a profound strain on the IDF, reservist soldiers, and broader Israeli society: the “Wooton Basset effect” of degrading popular support for the war as soldiers’ coffins continue to return home.
Negotiated pauses, or Ceasefire 2.0: Alternatively, diplomacy could yield a renewed ceasefire agreement. Given the efforts by Qatar, Egypt, and others, a plausible scenario exists where, by early summer 2025, both sides agree to stop the fighting temporarily. Such a deal would likely involve additional hostage releases by Hamas in exchange for Israel halting operations and possibly freeing more Palestinian prisoners. Mediators might craft an interim formula: a multi‑year hudna where Hamas keeps its arms but stays in its hand, while an international mechanism oversees Gaza’s reconstruction.
The strategic risk here for Israel is that Hamas could use a truce to regroup, as it did during the ceasefire earlier this year, but the risk for Hamas is that a truce without political progress could diminish its “resistance” image.
a negotiated pause is possible as war-weariness grows on both sides. It might not resolve the conflict’s root issues but could freeze the front lines and bring short-term relief.
Total Israeli victory and aftermath: One further scenario is a decisive victory: Hamas’s military defeat and the unconditional surrender or collapse of its rule in Gaza. This could happen if Israeli forces succeed in killing or capturing the top Hamas leadership and eliminating most of its fighters, and if Hamas’s will to fight diminishes (perhaps due to internal splits or loss of public support). The strategic implication of a total victory is that Israel would assume responsibility for what follows, and this is a prospect Israeli planners have approached with caution.An occupation or even indirect control of Gaza could entangle Israel in an open-ended nation-building mission, something it wishes to avoid.
Conclusion: The most plausible near-term outcome is a continued Israeli offensive for the next few weeks or couple of months, accompanied by international efforts to pause the fighting. Humanitarian realities may force short cessations, during which diplomacy could gain momentum.
In all scenarios, one thing is clear: the resolution of the Gaza conflict (or lack thereof) will shape regional dynamics for years to come. A prolonged war will worsen the humanitarian situation and could potentially radicalise a new generation. Conversely, a negotiated end might pave the way for intensive reconstruction efforts and political dialogue, although uncertainty remains about who will lead Gaza.
Any ‘victory’ will be pyrrhic if the underlying issues of Gaza’s status, Palestinian statehood, and security guarantees are not addressed.
IDF planning major shift in Gaza aid delivery in bid to thwart Hamas diversion by Emanuel Fabian and Jacob Magid with The Times of Israel
Israel is planning to radically alter the way humanitarian aid is distributed in the Gaza Strip when it begins allowing assistance into the enclave in the coming weeks
The plan is to transition away from wholesale distribution and warehousing of aid and to instead have international organizations and private security contractors hand out boxes of food to individual Gazan families
Each family will have a designated representative tasked with reaching an Israel Defense Forces security zone in southern Gaza, where aid will be distributed after going through several rounds of inspection. Each box will have enough food to last several days until family representatives will be allowed to return to the security zone to receive another parcel, the officials said, adding that Israel believes this method will make it harder for Hamas to divert aid to its fighters.
The IDF will not be directly involved in the distribution of aid, amid pushback from Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, but troops will be tasked with providing an outer layer of security for the private contractors and international organizations handing out the assistance
Link: IDF planning major shift in Gaza aid delivery in bid to thwart Hamas diversion
The Benefits of Disarming Hamas Are Clear. What About the Price? by David Makovsky and Simone Saidmehr with The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
What seems to be a new part of the Israeli calculus is a shift of focus from toppling Hamas to disarming the group.
Israel believes that if Hamas can fire the shots, it will also call the shots in Gaza.
No Arab or Palestinian interim administration is going to take over Gaza if Hamas has an estimated 20,000 armed fighters.
Israeli officials acknowledge that several of the 37 hostages killed during the war were unintentionally killed by Israeli bombing.
Reservists have served 200‑300 days since October 7, while reporting rates are already down by roughly half.
Israel hopes to create a humanitarian zone in Muwasi.
Yet it remains unclear whether Israel will be able to ensure Hamas fighters get filtered out of this zone.
It seems entirely possible that Israel could have initial military successes in Gaza, only to get stuck with open‑ended military control and face an open‑ended insurgency.
The impact of Israel’s heavier hand could well be to feed an insurgency.
For Hamas disarmament to succeed, articulating a broader objective for a post‑Hamas Gaza is paramount.
Framing the goal as a means to achieve a future for Gaza governed by Arabs, not Israelis, would give Israel’s aims more legitimacy in the eyes of the world.
Link: The Benefits of Disarming Hamas Are Clear. What About the Price?
[HIGHLY RECCOMMEND] Catering to Qatar and Jonathan Schanzer in Commentary Magazine
The fawning treatment of Qatar did not begin with the new Trump administration.
Set aside the undeniable fact that Qatar is a financial patron of both Hamas and the Taliban. Qatar is an autocratic, Islamist, terrorist-supporting, human rights–abusing regime that should not have any hand in U.S. foreign policy. Moreover, this tiny country of just 330,000 citizens represents roughly 0.00004 of the world’s population. Yet it somehow has gained immense influence in American politics. That must end. But before we explore how to do that, we need to understand how Qatar’s rise occurred.
The sprawling and gleaming Al‑Udeid (the Pentagon’s Combined Air Operations Center) had been built to Pentagon specifications at no cost.
Qatar, as the U.S. intelligence community had long known, was a haven for future 9/11 mastermind Khaled Sheikh Mohammed.
…the Qatari regime created the Al Jazeera television network. The satellite station went on to become a vitriolic mouthpiece for al-Qaeda, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, and other jihadi factions Washington sought to counter after the 9/11 attacks.
In short, the warning signs were there to demonstrate that Qatar was a bad actor. American policymakers simply chose not to see them.
This is how it came to be that American war fighters prosecuted our War on Terror from a country that sponsors terrorism.
In 2012, Qatar became the home of Hamas leader Khaled Mashal, along with other Hamas figures.
Qatar was a natural place for Hamas to land, given the regime’s longstanding support for the Muslim Brotherhood (Hamas is a splinter faction of the Islamist movement). In 2012, the emir of Qatar, Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, visited Gaza and pledged $400 million in assistance. He was the first foreign leader to visit the territory after Hamas wrested it from the rival Fatah faction in a 2007 civil war.
At the same time, the tiny Gulf nation actively supported Islamist groups seeking to topple regimes across the Middle East.
Qatar soon became home to the notorious ‘Taliban Five’. Doha insists the offices were opened at Washington’s behest.
And so it came to be that Qatar supported jihadi causes across the Middle East while simultaneously working with Washington at the highest levels. Doha insists that the Hamas and Taliban offices were established at the behest of the American government, to engage with the two terrorist groups. While officials have since thanked Doha for their services, there is no record of the U.S. government ever requesting these offices to be established.
As patience ran out on the War on Terror, the desire to bring the war in Afghanistan to its conclusion found rare bipartisan support in Washington. The Taliban’s Doha office continued to serve as the hub for talks with American officials. Astoundingly, the Qataris convinced the Americans that the Taliban was ready to end the war and maintain a stable government in Afghanistan.
In August 2023, Qatar brokered a deal for the release of five Americans imprisoned in the Islamic Republic of Iran on spurious charges in exchange for an equal number of Iranian nationals in U.S. custody. The Iranians were guilty of criminal offenses; the Americans had been detained only for the purpose of leverage. In 2023 Qatar convinced the Biden administration to pay a $6 billion ransom to Tehran. Two months later, on October 7, Qatar-funded Hamas terrorists attacked Israel…
Estimates suggest that Qatar has gifted anywhere from $7 billion to $20 billion to institutions of higher learning.
Law firms, lobby groups, public relations shops, and other levers of influence are all on generous Qatari retainers. Hedge funds, mutual funds, joint ventures, and other generators of American wealth are similarly beholden to Qatari cash. Large parcels of real estate in one city after the next have been gobbled up by Qatari-backed developers. And that’s just what we know.
Government mechanisms are needed to track the flow of Qatari cash. Concurrently, Qatar needs to be sidelined as a negotiator for the terrorist groups it funds.
Link: Catering to Qatar
Antisemitism
[REPORT] Foundation to Combat Antisemitism Study: Jewish Hate Has Escalated In The US—But Could Be Slowing
In a time of rising antisemitism, nearly half of US adults remain unengaged on the topic—less aware of Jewish hate around them, uninformed or misinformed about its scale and impact, and less likely to stand up on behalf of Jews experiencing it. That’s the core finding of “Stand Up to Jewish Hate: The US Antisemitism Landscape Survey,” FCAS’ semiannual survey of 8,000 Americans that tracks attitudes toward Jews and antisemitism.
Haters and Leaning Haters combined have grown from 15% to 25% of US adults in just 18 months—that translates into 26 million additional Americans moving from Allies or Unengaged into hate.
Harmful Jewish tropes have also gained ground in the US. Belief has grown in every anti-Jewish stereotype that our survey tracks, for example:
58% of Americans think it’s at least somewhat true that Jewish people are thrifty and cost-conscious
55% believe American Jews care more about the future of Israel than the future of their own country
54% think of Jews as white and wealthy
44% think Jews run Hollywood and 42% believe Jews run media in America
Finally, skepticism about antisemitism has also increased. 62% of US adults believe prejudice against Jews is a minor problem or not a problem at all. 36% think that issues of antisemitism in the US are blown out of proportion—up from 28% in June 2023.
Younger Americans are less likely to be Allies for all the same reasons examined earlier:
Younger adults are more likely to have overt antisemitic beliefs (e.g., 40% say Jews cause problems in the world).
They are more likely to believe in various harmful Jewish tropes.
They are more likely to be skeptical about antisemitism (e.g., 44% think it’s blown out of proportion).
Despite the negative trends, almost half of Americans are still Unengaged on these issues—uninformed or misinformed bystanders who are reachable and persuadable
Link: FCAS - Jewish Hate Rising: 26 Million Shift Toward Hate
Casualties (+2)
Cpt. Noam Ravid, 23 and Staff Sgt. Yaly Seror, 20, were killed and two were wounded in an explosion in a booby-trapped tunnel shaft in southern Gaza’s Rafah Saturday. According to an initial IDF probe, the soldiers, who served in the elite Yahalom combat engineering operating under the Golani Brigade, were scanning the entrance to a tunnel inside a building when they were suddenly hit by an explosion.
1,868 Israelis have been killed including 853 IDF soldiers and police since October 7th (+2)
The South: 413 IDF soldiers (+2 since Thursday) during the ground operation in Gaza have been killed. The toll includes three police officers (two of which were killed in a hostage rescue mission) and two Defense Ministry civilian contractors.
The North: 132 Israelis (84 IDF soldiers) have been killed during the war in Northern Israel
The West Bank: 63 Israelis (27 IDF and Israeli security forces)
Additional Information (according to the IDF):
5,846 (+19 since Thursday) IDF soldiers have been injured since the beginning of the war, including at least 863 (+3 since Thursday) who have been severely injured.
2,641 (+5 since Thursday) IDF soldiers have been injured during ground combat in Gaza, including at least 508 (+2 since Thursday) who have been severely injured.
The Gaza Casualty Count: According to unverified figures from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, 52,495 total deaths have been reported, with a civilian/combatant ratio: 1:1.
[MUST READ] Report: Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza by Andrew Fox with The Henry Jackson Society
On October 7th, Ohad Hemo with Channel 12 Israel News – the country’s largest news network, a leading expert on Palestinian and Arab affairs, mentioned an estimate from Hamas: around 80% of those killed in Gaza are members of the organization and their families.”
Read this well documented piece from Tablet published in March of 2024: How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers
The Associated Press, an outlet with a demonstrated anti-Israel bias, conducted an analysis of alleged Gaza death tolls released by the Hamas-controlled "Gaza Health Ministry." The analysis found that "9,940 of the dead – 29% of its April 30 total – were not listed in the data" and that "an additional 1,699 records in the ministry’s April data were incomplete and 22 were duplicates."
The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes official details on every civilian and IDF casualty.
Hostage Update (no change)
There are now currently 58 hostages taken on 10/7 currently in captivity in Gaza (there are 59 hostages remaining in total)
38 hostages were released in the first phase of the 2025 cease fire agreement (including 5 Thai nationals)
24 hostages will remain in captivity after Phase I and have not been declared dead.
5 hostages are Americans: Meet the Five American Hostages Still Held By Hamas: Edan Alexander is assumed to be alive, Itay Chen is assumed to have been killed on 10/7, and Gadi Haggai, Judi Weinstein Haggai, and Omer Neutra have been confirmed to have been killed.
4 are soldiers
7 are residents of the Gaza border communities
11 were abducted from the Nova music festival
2 are foreign workers: Bipin Joshi from Nepal and Pinta Nattapong from Thailand
On October 7th, a total of 251 Israelis were taken hostage.
During the ceasefire deal in November of 2023, 112 hostages were released.
193 hostages in total have been released or rescued
The bodies of 40 hostages have been recovered, including 3 mistakenly killed by the military as they tried to escape their captors.
8 hostages have been heroically rescued by troops alive
Of the 59 hostages still theoretically in Gaza
31 hostages have been confirmed dead and are currently being held in Gaza
Thus, at most, 28 living hostages could still be in Gaza.
Hamas is now holding the body of 1 IDF soldier who was killed in 2014 (Lt. Hadar Goldin’s body remains held in the Gaza Strip)
Regular sources include JINSA, FDD, IDF, AIPAC, The Paul Singer Foundation, The Institute for National Security Studies, the Alma Research and Education Center, Yediot, Jerusalem Post, IDF Casualty Count, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Institute for the Study of War, Tablet Magazine, Mosaic Magazine, The Free Press, and the Times of Israel