Israel Update: July 21 (Day 289)
Situational Update
An explosive-laden drone launched by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen struck an apartment building in central Tel Aviv in the pre-dawn hours of Friday morning, killing an Israeli man and wounding several others. According to an initial investigation carried out by the Israeli Air Force, the unmanned aerial vehicle had been identified, but due to a human error, it was not engaged by air defenses.
The blast also claimed the life of Yevgeny Ferder, 50, who reportedly worked at Momo’s Hostel near the site of the explosion.
Per the FDD and multiple sources: In response, Israel carried out its first publicly acknowledged air strike on Houthi terrorist targets in Yemen, bombing around Hudaydah Port. An IDF official said the Israeli Air Force struck Houthi dual-use infrastructure used for terrorist activities at the Yemeni port where Iran transfers weapons to the Houthis. Arab media showed parts of the Red Sea port aflame. The long-range attack was particularly noteworthy because Israeli aircraft struck targets more than 1,000 miles away from Israel, likely requiring refueling en route. According to the military, the strike on the fuel depot was a major blow to the Houthi economy, and the cranes being taken out of service prevents the group from bringing in more Iranian weapons via the port (which serves as the main supply artery of Houthi weaponry) that have been used to target Israel, along with commercial and military ships in the Red Sea.
Israeli journalist Marc Schulman says “Israel’s retaliatory attack conveys a number of messages. Primarily, it is a strategic strike against the Houthis, but it also serves as a warning to Iran, highlighting that the flight to Yemen is longer than the flight to Iran.”
The status of the hostage deal remains uncertain. Secretary of State Blinken noted at the Aspen Security Conference that an agreement is close, likening it to being within the 10-yard line.
According to Barak Ravid, the meeting between PM Netanyahu and President Biden will now take place on Tuesday.
Hezbollah Attacks Wound Israeli Soldiers, Damage School. A school was among the targets struck during the dozens of missile and UAV attacks launched against Israel by Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon on July 20-21. The school, at Kibbutz Dafna in northern Israel, was damaged but was empty at the time of the attack on July 21.
The Numbers
Casualties
***I am adding a brief note going forward to each casualty figure that indicates the change from the last update
1,631 Israelis dead, including 683 IDF soldiers (326 IDF soldiers during the ground operation in Gaza)
Additional Information (according to the IDF):
2,140 (+10 since Wednesday) IDF soldiers have been injured during ground combat in Gaza, including at least 403 (+1 since Wednesday) who have been severely injured.
4,194 (+45 since Wednesday) IDF soldiers have been injured since the beginning of the war, including at least 621 (no change since Wednesday) who have been severely injured.
Note: we have always included the number of casualties in Gaza, as reported by the Gaza Health Ministry. We feel it is important to include this information with the caveat that this reporting ministry is not a trusted source of data by many. Most recently, The United Nations has begun citing a much lower death toll for women and children in Gaza, acknowledging that it has incomplete information about many of the people killed during Israel’s military offensive in the territory.
According to unverified figures from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, 38,848 (+264 since Wednesday) people have been killed in Gaza, and 89,459 (+578 since Wednesday) have been injured during the war.
We also encourage you to read this well documented piece from Tablet published in March: How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers
The Associated Press, an outlet with a demonstrated anti-Israel bias, conducted an analysis of alleged Gaza death tolls released by the Hamas-controlled "Gaza Health Ministry." The analysis found that "9,940 of the dead – 29% of its April 30 total – were not listed in the data" and that "an additional 1,699 records in the ministry’s April data were incomplete and 22 were duplicates."
Hostages (no change from Wednesday)
On October 7th, a total of 261 Israelis were taken hostage.
During the ceasefire deal in November, 112 hostages were released.
A total of 7 hostages have been rescued and the remains of 19 others have been recovered. Tragically, 3 have been mistakenly killed by the IDF, and 1 was killed during an IDF attempt to rescue him.
This leaves an estimated 116 hostages still theoretically in Gaza, with somewhere between (assumed) 35-43 deceased. Thus, at most, 85 living hostages could still be in Gaza.
According to an article published in the WSJ, “Of the approximately 250 hostages taken in the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack, 116 continue to be held captive, including many believed to be dead. Mediators in the hostage talks and a U.S. official familiar with the latest U.S. intelligence said the number of those hostages still alive could be as low as 50.”
That assessment, based in part on Israeli intelligence, would mean 66 of those still held hostage could be dead, 25 more than Israel has publicly acknowledged.
Link: Families of Hostages in Gaza Are Desperate for News but Dread a Phone Call | WSJ
(Sources: JINSA, FDD, IDF, AIPAC, The Paul Singer Foundation, The Institute for National Security Studies, the Alma Research and Education Center, Yediot, Jerusalem Post, and the Times of Israel)
Listen
[PODCAST] Call Me Back - with Dan Senor: Bibi in Washington - with Amit Segal
Prime Minister Netanyahu prepares to arrive in Washington, DC next week for an address to a joint session of Congress (his 4th), a meeting with President Biden (covid-permitting), all against the backdrop of the negotiations over hostages and a temporary (or phased) ceasefire.
To help us understand what is going on the eve of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s visit, to preview what the Prime Minister hopes to get out of the visit, and the stakes for the visit (and also the future of the political Right in Israel), we are joined by Amit Segal. He is the chief political correspondent and analyst for Channel 12 News, and for Yediot Achronot, the country’s largest circulation newspaper. In his military service, he worked as a media and parliamentary correspondent for IDF (military) Radio.
Link: Call Me Back - with Dan Senor: Bibi in Washington - with Amit Segal
Watch
[VIDEO] Nationally syndicated columnist Ian Haworth says: “Only Jews are condemned as genocidal colonizers for defending themselves against actual genocidal colonizers. Only Jews are condemned for ethnic cleansing after being ethnically cleansed. Only Jews are expected to provide the people trying to kill them with food, water and free internet. Only Jews are expected to live under constant rocket fire. Only Jews are expected to defend our own existence against white supremacists, radical Muslims and moronic social media grifters. Only Jews are expected to accept victimhood.”
What We Are Reading
Injustice, Israel, and the "International Court of Justice": by Elliott Abrams in Pressure Points
The ICJ's "advisory opinion" on Israeli "settlements" in Jerusalem and the West Bank is an injustice that gives evidence of considerable bias against the Jewish State.
On Friday, July 19, the International Court of Justice delivered itself of a vile “advisory opinion” entitled “LEGAL CONSEQUENCES ARISING FROM THE POLICIES AND PRACTICES OF ISRAEL IN THE OCCUPIED PALESTINIAN TERRITORY, INCLUDING EAST JERUSALEM.”
One could, again, write books about all of this but I will confine myself to a few salient points:
Jerusalem is the capital of the State of Israel and the center of Jewish religious devotion for thousands of years. When the Court refers to East Jerusalem as Occupied Palestinian Territory, it is saying that unlike any other country Israel has no right to “settle” in its own capital, Jews have no right to live in many parts of it, and they must leave. Israel must “bring an end to its presence” there. Israelis living in East Jerusalem must leave “as rapidly as possible.” In this context it’s worth remembering the IHRA definition of antisemitism, which includes “the targeting of the state of Israel” by for example “Applying double standards by requiring of it a behavior not expected or demanded of any other democratic nation.” By this definition, this advisory opinion qualifies as antisemitic.
While the Court sits in the Hague, it apparently lives on the moon. Take for example the “wall,” which is actually a barrier between Israel and the West Bank that is for 90 percent of its length a fence, not a wall. The Court’s exclusive use of the term “wall” to describe the barrier is yet another sign of its prejudices. The barrier was built after the Second Intifada for one reason: to staunch the vicious terrorist attacks on Israelis from the West Bank, attacks that had killed more than 1,000 Israelis.
“All new settlement activity” must cease immediately, the Court says. This presumably means that if you own a home in the West Bank and are having a new baby, and wish to turn your garage into a new bedroom, you are violating international law.
It’s worth noting that the Court’s desire to protect Palestinians is not—of course—matched by concern about Muslims in Xinjiang or Buddhists in Tibet.
The hostility toward Israel, the sheer malice, the desire to do harm, is clearly visible in paragraph 278, where nations are urged not to have embassies in Jerusalem and not to allow trade in items from the West Bank. The Israeli Ministry of Justice is at 29 Salah a-Din Street in East Jerusalem, near the American Colony Hotel. The Court is, it seems, stating that diplomats may not visit there. This is a throwback to 1948, when American and other diplomats were forbidden from visiting the foreign ministry in Jerusalem. The Court here is engaging in a great effort to delegitimize the State of Israel.
What is so striking is that this entirely political judgment comes in what is supposed to be a legal document.
The politics and prejudices of the judges permeate this ICJ action, and render it illegitimate. The State of Israel and the United States should pay it no heed.
Link: Injustice, Israel, and the "International Court of Justice"
Israel needs to ‘re-define the goals of the war,’ ex-intel chief, says Marc Rod with Jewish Insider
Amos Yadlin, the former head of the IDF’s military intelligence directorate, said at the Aspen Security Forum on Thursday that Israel needs to “re-define the goals of the war” in Gaza against Hamas, while offering strong criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Arguing that it will be impossible for Israel to kill every Hamas terrorist, Yadlin proposed a set of three goals for the war: freeing the hostages, returning to and rebuilding communities in southern Israel and ensuring that Hamas can no longer pose a threat to Israel.
Yadlin said that Hamas had already been significantly degraded to the level of an insurgency, rather than a full military as it was on Oct. 7. And he said that Oct. 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar is under immense pressure from Hamas commanders to end the war.
He argued that the post-war status of Gaza and the deradicalization of its population — eliminating the ideology of Hamas — is “not our job” and “we cannot do it.” He has argued in the past for a Palestinian bureaucracy — not run by the current PA — supported by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to take over the enclave.
Now, Yadlin said, Netanyahu’s best path to salvage his legacy is to end the war and finalize a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia. He said that the Israeli opposition would provide the necessary votes to approve a deal if Netanyahu calls a new election.
Yadlin said that the U.S. and Israel should be focused on making an agreement together on how they will stop Iran from obtaining a bomb, what their “red lines” are for the Iranian nuclear program and what operational strategy they would use in that eventuality.
The former Israeli intelligence chief warned that Iran is already close to a nuclear weapon, having enough fissile material for eight or nine bombs and the missiles with which to deliver them.
Yadlin recommended focusing on Iran’s progress toward weaponization as the third key component in a nuclear attack. And he said that the top priority for Israeli intelligence should be determining if the Iranian supreme leader has decided to pursue a bomb after Iran’s April missile attack on Israel failed.
Link: Israel needs to ‘re-define the goals of the war,’ ex-intel chief: Jewish Insider
Vilifying Israel's Use of 2,000-Pound Bombs Only Ends Up Costing More Lives by John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point
This week, Israel very likely killed the long-time head of Hamas's military, Mohammed Dief, with multiple 2,000-pound bombs. This comes directly after United States announced it was lifting the restriction on 500-pound bombs shipments to Israel but keeping a block on larger diameter munitions to include 2,000-pound bombs. In his press conference on the issue, President Joe Biden laid out his rationale. "I have not provided them 2,000-pound bombs," President Biden said. "They cannot be used in Gaza or any other populated area without causing great human tragedy and damage."
The penetration depth of a 2,000 pound bomb, depending on the kind and whether it must go through concrete, is believed to be from 16 feet to more than 30 feet. Hamas's military wing is hidden in more than 400 miles of tunnels, some as deep as 200 feet underground. And to Israel's north, Hezbollah, like Hamas, has spent years digging tunnels deeper and deeper to protect what is believed to be an arsenal of over 100,000 rockets, missiles and drones. Southern Lebanon is referred to as the "Land of Tunnels" due to the miles of deep buried underground networks.
Israel has used its 2,000-pound bombs against what it assessed to be military targets in bunkers and tunnels, even while knowing that there would be unavoidable civilian casualties—just as the United States has done in its past wars.
Some weapons experts and veterans have recently claimed that the United States has rarely used 2,000-pound bombs. That's simply not true.
During the first Gulf war, the United States dropped more than 16,000 2,000-pound bombs on Iraqi targets. During the opening month of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, it dropped more than 5,000 of these bombs in Baghdad, a city of over 5 million residents at the time and other urban areas. The U.S. dropped four of the bombs on just one building in a residential neighborhood in Baghdad, after receiving intelligence reports that some senior Iraqi officials, possibly including Saddam Hussein and his two sons, were there.
U.S. battles against ISIS in Mosul and Raqqa in 2016 and 2017, against a few thousand defenders, involved less aerial bombing. Some analysts have compared those fights with Gaza, suggesting that the United States and its allies fought a less destructive war there. But in Mosul and Raqqa, U.S. forces faced an enemy that was only a fraction of the size and capability of Hamas, and without tunnels in which to retreat. Eighty percent of the Old City of Mosul was destroyed and 10,000 civilians died in the effort to kill fewer than 5,000 ISIS fighters. In Raqqa, 70 percent of the city was ruined, brought to the point where the U.N. considered it "unfit for human habitation."
As a potential ceasefire comes into view in Gaza, it's still far from clear that a long-term peace is at hand. Israel has thus far not prevailed in Gaza, and not having a ready supply of 2,000-pound bombs has almost certainly played a role in allowing Hamas to hang on.
Urban warfare is awful. But depriving Israel, or any other country, of the ability to use 2,000-pound bombs while fighting in densely populated areas only prolongs the human tragedy.
Link: Vilifying Israel's Use of 2,000-Pound Bombs Only Ends Up Costing More Lives
[WORTH THE FULL READ]
'Dismantling Hamas from within': IDF uncovers trove of Hamas secrets by Amir Bohbot with the Jerusalem Post
The IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) have uncovered a treasure trove of Hamas intelligence, consisting of stacks of documents, files, and computers, including guidelines on what to do if someone is suspected of being part of the LGBTQ community and a phrasebook of Hebrew words to help terrorists communicate in Hebrew, which included phrases such as "Take off your clothes."
The intelligence included Excel tables showing the readiness levels of special units, companies, battalions, and brigades, including the scope of training, weapons, and ammunition.
It also included documentation of orders in the various units and the review of equipment lists for each fighter, protocols of meetings, discussions, and the decision-making process at senior and junior levels.
The official documents of Hamas's "rulebook" reveal brutal behavior against anyone suspected of belonging to the LGBTQ community. Additionally, documentation of interrogations and testimonies about aggressive questioning focused solely on sexual preferences and orientations was found, indicating that those suspected of being part of the LGBTQ community faced a single fate – death.
Documents were also recovered that held detailed plans by Hamas on how to operate worldwide in regions such as Europe, Jordan, Egypt, the US that were far from the eyes of foreign intelligence organizations and under the radar of the media.
Literature from the Hamas education system was also found. Among the items discovered were approximately 1,500 antisemitic books, indicating a systematic process of instilling hatred and promoting terrorism against Israel from the first day of education in the Hamas system.
Documents found on the bodies of the terrorists included Israeli work permits, as well as maps of settlements and IDF bases, marking important points such as the locations of senior officials' offices, armories, clinics, and more.
Some documents also revealed the corruption within Hamas, showing how they not only accumulated assets but also used them. United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) apartments were registered in the name of Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif's wife.
Furthermore, documents and interrogations revealed that battalion commanders in the military wing received religious authorization to write fatwas under the title of sheikh to justify their actions against the Israeli population and soldiers, showing the terrorists there was no contradiction between the orders and Islam.
According to the documents, the leadership of Hamas's military wing defined the act of "photography" as a central and strategic task, as important as training for war, with the goal of influencing the enemy and generating propaganda for the Palestinian public and supporters of Hamas resistance.
Link: Inside Hamas: Detailed maps, equipment lists, and brutal orders
Antisemitism
The Foundation to Combat Antisemitism (FCAS) publishes weekly information from over 300 million online data sources including public social media, traditional media, websites, blogs, forums, and more. The bigger the phrase on the above image, the more total mentions it had in the time period.
Global Guidelines for Countering Antisemitism released by the US Department of State
Per FCAS, Deborah Lipstadt, the U.S. Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Antisemitism, announced on Wednesday the endorsement of the “Global Guidelines for Countering Antisemitism” by the United States and 35 other international bodies.
Concerned states, special envoys, national coordinators, and representatives tasked by their governments to counter antisemitism, in cooperation with international bodies, offer the following best practices, which have proven to be effective guidelines in formulating public policy.
These legally non-binding guidelines, adopted in Buenos Aires, Argentina, include policies to monitor and combat antisemitism that can be implemented and adapted to a wide variety of national, regional, and cultural contexts.
Link: Global Guidelines for Countering Antisemitism - United States Department of State