Situational Update
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to travel to Washington early next week to meet with President Trump and others to try to finalize a new ceasefire deal with Hamas, and possibly a final deal to end the war.
The current proposal according to multiple sources would see 10 living and 18 deceased hostages released in stages over a 60-day ceasefire period, with Hamas said to agree to forgo public hostage release ceremonies and Israel said to agree to hold off on resuming military operations so long as talks on ending the war were ongoing.
Operation Rising Lion
Israel’s Defense Ministry’s Directorate of Defense Research and Development (MAFAT) released data from the Israel-Iran war per Amit Segal and Nitzan Shapira with Israel’s Channel 12:
Missile defense systems prevented an estimated 50 billion shekels (15 billion USD) in property damage.
In preparation for the war, tens of millions of square kilometers were photographed from space, during day and night. This included the capturing of more than 12,000 satellite images over Iran. Tens of millions of square kilometers were also photographed during the war, providing Israel with critical intelligence to help with its strikes on Iranian soil.
86 percent of the Iranian ballistic missiles launched toward Israel were successfully intercepted.
In a statement, MAFAT said: “The potential damage prevented by the air defense systems is seven times greater than the actual damage caused” during the war.
In March, Israel conducted a test to see how the Iron Dome would handle a swarm of UAVs. It was this, as well as the installation of upgraded versions of the Iron Dome and David’s Sling, that Israel believes helped it intercept 99 percent of Iranian drones during the war.
Israel/Middle East Related Articles
[MUST READ] Israel was facing destruction at the hands of Iran. This is how close it came, and how it saved itself by David Horovitz with The Times of Israel – Iran was a decision and a few weeks away from nuclear weapons. But unlike Gaza 2023, Israel had been watching
The Iranian regime was increasingly convinced in recent months that it would soon be able to destroy Israel. The “Destruction of Israel” clock in Tehran’s Palestine Square was not an exercise in bravado. It was a public countdown to what the ayatollahs believed was Israel’s imminent demise, at their hands.
Israel’s elimination, the regime delightedly, and rationally, assessed, was truly at hand.
That is the sober, honest judgment of the military and security chiefs who told Israel’s political leaders in recent months that Israel had to go to war against Iran, preferably in June and certainly not much later. That the end of 2025 would be too late. That it was now or never. That Iran was a decision and a few weeks away from nuclear weapons. And that the regime’s fast-growing ballistic missile capability was rapidly becoming an existential threat as well.
And Israel indeed went to war. And saved itself.
In the aftermath of October 7, the Iranian regime accelerated its clandestine nuclear weapons program. It accelerated its ballistic missile production. It bolstered its air defenses. It directly attacked Israel for the first time, in April 2024, and fired another huge missile barrage in October.
By late 2024, however, Iran was also losing ground as regards its proxies. Israel had eliminated its most important proxy leader, Hezbollah’s Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, and massively degraded Hezbollah’s capabilities.
Then came the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and a rapid Israeli military response that prevented major military assets from falling into the hands of the new rebel regime and ensured that Israel held air supremacy there.
The regime in Tehran responded by further accelerating its efforts to attain the bomb. It expanded its stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium. It made significant progress on weaponization. Its key scientists were conducting tests and simulations that underlined how close they were to completing the program.
At the same time, Iran stepped up its missile production capabilities. As Israel has publicly stated, Iran had built an arsenal of some 2,500 highly potent missiles, many with 1-ton warheads capable of immense devastation, and was on track to have 4,000 by March 2026. And 8,000 by 2027.
Watching Iran with a far greater degree of intelligence penetration than the regime had realized, Israel’s military and security planners had in February 2025 received the green light from the political echelon to preempt.
Twice before — in Iraq in 1981, and Syria in 2007 — Israel had blown up its enemies’ nuclear weapons programs. But comparisons are inappropriate. Those were bold strikes on single nuclear reactors; this would be an assault of an entirely different order, against an enemy that thought it knew what was coming.
The IDF had assessed that Iran would try to fire 300-500 missiles in its initial response to an Israeli attack, and that it was possible it could launch as many as 300 in the first 15 minutes. In the event, it fired none for 18 hours.
Only one leading Iranian figure sensed just ahead of time that something was up: Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the aerospace chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a US-designated terrorist organization. Responsible for Iran’s missiles and drones, Hajizadeh was perceived by Israeli security chiefs as the most dangerous man in Iran, no less, and was most certainly on the initial target list.
Israel feared it had lost sight of him as it precision-targeted the key Iranian figures in those first minutes and hours. But Hajizadeh had dashed to a military bunker he believed was secure, and convened key colleagues. And it was there that Israel found and eliminated him and five other top officers in the IRGC air force.
Israel’s military planners and operational chiefs consider the initial attack to have been an incredible success, and so too the 12 days of concerted assaults that followed. Avoiding hyperbole, the IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir publicly assessed that Iran’s nuclear program and its missile capabilities were “significantly damaged.”
Every pre-designated target was indeed attacked, and destroyed or damaged to the extent the planners had believed possible or more so.
The top-level nuclear scientists are gone, and not easily replaceable. Natanz is believed destroyed, along with its centrifuges. Isfahan — possibly the only Iranian facility capable of converting uranium into the necessary form for enrichment, and of converting enriched uranium into solid metal form en route to a warhead — is likely destroyed. Fordo, where the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency had in 2023 reported evidence of enrichment to 83.7% — just short of weapons grade — is not operational, thanks in overwhelming part to the US bombing.
Iran’s ballistic missile program is greatly degraded. It is believed to still have some 700-1,000 missiles and fewer than 200 of its original 400 launchers.
I wrote 12 days ago that Iran had been “a matter of no more than two months, and possibly as little as a week,” from being able to build a deliverable bomb.
Today, Zamir has been quoted telling colleagues, Iran is no longer a nuclear threshold state, and its plans to eliminate Israel have been set back years.
There is, however, absolutely no room or reason for hubris. Israel allowed itself to slip into existential peril, and the astounding success of the 12-day war is a temporary accomplishment.
Iran is not going anywhere. And so long as the ayatollahs retain power, they can be relied upon to recommit to their efforts to wipe out Israel.
Netanyahu on Tuesday accurately described the war as a “historic” victory, and has said it opens the door to potential new normalization agreements. He also asserted that it would abide for generations and that Israel had sent the Iranian nuclear program “down the drain.”
The prime minister also declared that Israel would have faced destruction in the near future “if we hadn’t acted now.” On that, there is no disagreement.
Iran’s Flying Monkeys by Tony Badran with Tablet Magazine
Iran, a much larger country than Israel, with 10 times the population, was a rising power. Its regional reach spanned from the Gulf to the Mediterranean. It had established missile bases on Israel’s borders and on a critical maritime passageway in the Red Sea. It controlled four Arab capitals and dominated the landmass across Iraq through Syria into Lebanon. In addition, Iran was allied with the United States’ two great rivals, Russia and China.
Israel’s recent victories have shattered the illusion of Iran’s power. It took Israel 21 months to blow through what many believed was an unbreakable “Axis of Resistance.”
Gaza, Iran’s southern front, is now a wasteland, and it’s unlikely Israel will ever cede control over the strip’s border with Egypt, meaning Gaza as an active front is gone for good.
Within three months in 2024, Israel eliminated Hezbollah’s entire command structure, decimated its infrastructure along the border, and blew up its weapons caches. Despite a U.S.-imposed cease-fire, Israel maintains operational freedom inside Lebanon, with Hezbollah unable to respond.
In December 2024, the Assad regime, Iran’s strategic ally since 1979, collapsed in days. A new Sunni regime in Damascus is now intercepting weapons shipments to Hezbollah.
Israel showed its reach inside Iran, taking out Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and demonstrating it could operate with ease in the country’s most sensitive places.
After dismantling Iran’s air defense systems, Israel gained full control of Iran’s airspace, clearing the way for the United States to demolish Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Iran’s nuclear dreams went up in smoke, much like its regional enterprise.
Since Israel thrashed Hezbollah a year ago, the world has been shocked by the comprehensiveness of Israeli domination and the hollow reality of Iran’s regional power.
The Iranian position, much like its nuclear program, was never about Iranian strength but about U.S. protection and funding under prior administrations.
Leadership changed everything. Without Netanyahu’s resolve and Trump’s decisive support, the outcome would have been different. The destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program became possible only when American policy aligned with Israel’s strategy.
President Trump summed it up best: “The way I look at it, they fought. The war is done. I don’t think [a new agreement] is necessary.”
The illusion that Washington’s establishment maintained with Iran has been shattered. The proxy armies that formed Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” are gone. The spell is broken, and the regime’s regional alignment has been shattered beyond easy repair.
Now it’s time for Washington and regional leaders to deal with reality.
Link: Iran’s Flying Monkeys
The future of the Middle East – Part 1 by Andrew Fox: This three-part series of long articles, spanning over 14,000 words of detailed analysis, examines how Israel’s adversaries are adjusting after military setbacks; how disinformation and international backlash threaten Israel’s global reputation; and what Israel, the US, and Gulf allies must do next to achieve lasting peace.
Israel’s recent string of tactical victories has left its traditional adversaries reeling from Khan Younis to Beirut to Tehran.
Militarily weakened, Hamas is doubling down on ideology and propaganda to maintain its cause. It paints survival itself as a form of victory, emphasising that despite devastating losses, the movement lives to fight another day.
Historically, Palestinian factions have often claimed moral or symbolic victories to inspire future generations. We see echoes of this now: Hamas framing the 7 October 2023 onslaught as proof of Israeli vulnerability and exhorting Palestinians to remain steadfast, even as Gaza lies in ruins.
Hezbollah has emerged from the latest clash with Israel considerably weakened both militarily and politically.
Israel continues to strike Hezbollah assets and personnel within Lebanon with near impunity, something that would have been unimaginable in earlier years.
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has cut off vital weapons supply routes, forcing Iran to attempt risky, small-scale smuggling into Lebanon.
The destruction caused by the war and the visible defeat of Hezbollah have encouraged many Lebanese (including some Shi’a) to criticise the group and call for its disarmament openly.
In the West Bank, Israel’s successes elsewhere have been accompanied by a fierce crackdown on militants in Palestinian towns and refugee camps.
Thousands of West Bank Palestinians have fled their homes due to the military raids, creating scenes reminiscent of past wars.
Iran has arguably undergone the most significant reversal in its regional strategy.
By early 2025, Iran’s position was critical. Its primary proxy, Hezbollah, had effectively surrendered; Hamas was in disarray; Syria, long Iran’s route to the Levant, saw the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, cutting off a key ally and supply line.
The so-called Axis of Resistance (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, etc.) emerged from this conflict, exhausted and disengaged, mainly in its later stages due to attrition and reluctance.
All of this means Iran faces a pivotal strategic moment: whether to continue confrontation or recalibrate its approach to simply endure.
For now, Supreme Leader Khamenei and the IRGC are likely endeavouring to project unity and resolve, even as they quietly recalibrate strategy for the next round, whenever that is.
‘Israeli spies in Iran for years’: How the Mossad operated long-term in Tehran in YNet (Israel’s most widely read news outlet)
Israeli intelligence agents infiltrated the heart of Iran’s missile and nuclear programs years ago and have been gathering detailed intelligence on the Islamic Republic’s strategic capabilities ever since, according to a report published Saturday by The Times.
The report is based on leaked intelligence documents that were shared by Israel with Western allies, including the U.S. and UK. The documents reveal the full scope of Iran’s ambitions: “Iran was aiming to produce up to 1,000 a year with a reported aim of a stock of 8,000 missiles,” the report read.
A source quoted in the leak added, “Agents in Iran visited every workshop and factory that were later attacked, enabling Israel to target the entire industry that supported the manufacturing of large amounts of missiles.”
According to The Times, the Mossad concluded from the intelligence that Iran’s technological capabilities, know-how and access to nuclear components “was racing ahead and it was far more extensive than just the main sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.”
The report also linked Israeli intelligence operations to specific attacks, including the strike on the Natanz nuclear facility, which was allegedly guided by Israeli spies who mapped the site — including underground layouts. Israeli forces are also said to have infiltrated additional sensitive sites in Isfahan and even the headquarters of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Dr. Efrat Sopher, head of the Ezri Center for Iran and Persian Gulf Studies at the University of Haifa, said, “For decades, Israel has tracked Iran’s activities from within. The Mossad played a central role in neutralizing the Iranian threat — and its successes against Iran and its proxies will go down in history.”
The depth of Israel’s penetration into Iranian intelligence networks has reportedly triggered what officials are now describing as a “state of paranoia” within the regime. Over 1,000 Iranians have been arrested, armed patrols have been deployed to the streets, and the so-called “morality police” have intensified enforcement of religious dress codes for women.
Link: ‘Israeli spies in Iran for years’: How the Mossad operated long-term in Tehran
Antisemitism
[HIGHLY RECCOMMEND] Ayaan Hirsi Ali: Glastonbury—and the Purge of the Jews by Ayaan Hirsi Ali with The Free Press
At first glance, and from the panoramic shot provided by a shaky iPhone, the scenes out of Glastonbury resemble an energetic protest. The red and green flags waving in the hot breeze; the keffiyehs; the chants. But turn up the volume and listen closely to what tens of thousands of people are shouting, led by the lead singer of the punk duo Bob Vylan: “Death, death to the IDF.”
Lest there be any confusion about what the singer meant: Later that evening he posted a selfie eating ice cream: “While Zionists are crying on socials,” he wrote, “I’ve just had a late night (vegan) ice cream. [LOL]”
This took place on one of the festival’s main stages. It was broadcast live on the BBC.
What happened at Glastonbury over the weekend is part of a coordinated, ideological insurgency against the Jewish people. Not just against the Israeli military. Not just against Israel. Not just against Zionism. Against Jews.
Jews are no strangers to accusations of secret plots: banking plots, media plots, world domination. They’re always scheming, according to the people who can’t stop obsessing over them. What’s unfolding now is a real plot not being orchestrated by Jews, but against them. And it’s happening in broad daylight.
While Jews are endlessly forced to disavow this, condemn that, prove their decency—the other side advances, unencumbered. No need for facts or logic. Just raw power and moral hysteria.
It’s called the “Free Palestine” movement. But the branding is a smoke screen. What we’re dealing with is not a grassroots plea for peace, for statehood. It’s Islamism soaked in Maoism, weaponized for the social media era, and sharpened to a point by ideological warriors who’ve read more Foucault than Quran.
What makes this moment uniquely dangerous is the merging of two ideologies that, historically, have operated in very different arenas: Islamism and Maoism.
Islamism seeks to restore a seventh-century caliphate through bombs, blood, and barbarity. Maoism seeks to flatten all hierarchies under the boot of “equity,” enforced through surveillance, humiliation, and fear.
Both share a core instinct: Crush the infidel, purge the impure, seize control of the narrative. Islamism brings the fire—holy rage, a fixation on martyrdom, and a visceral hatred for Jews that predates the state of Israel by centuries. Maoism brings the strategy—the long march through institutions, the cultural struggle sessions, the rewriting of history, the reframing of reality through social media and sound bites.
When these ideologies converge—and they have—you get something far more dangerous than a political protest. You get a cultural movement. And this one has a clear mission: Erase not just Israel “from the river to the sea,” but the Jewish people from the moral map.
The strategy is brilliant in its simplicity: Paint Israel as the nexus of evil, then paint every Jew who doesn’t loudly renounce it as complicit. Force them to choose between their dignity and their safety.
Look closely at the streets of America and Europe today—and especially our elite institutions. Jewish students are being harassed on campus. Synagogues, Jewish community centers, even kosher delis are defaced. A Jewish family dines out in Los Angeles or New York, and suddenly a stranger is in their face, phone camera rolling: “What are your thoughts on Palestine?”
This is not a protest, it is a predicate for violence. At best, these people are filmed and shamed online. At worst? Just look at what happened outside of the Jewish museum in D.C. Or in Boulder, Colorado, days later.
The scariest part is that there is no centralized command, no imam issuing decrees, no party chairman drawing strategy. It’s organic now. The algorithm is the accelerant. The more aggressive the footage, the more viral the cause. You don’t need a pulpit or a politburo—you just need a phone and a target.
One day it’s a video. The next, it’s a knife or a pistol or a Molotov cocktail hurled through a synagogue window—because the digital applause doesn’t just permit the violence, it practically demands it.
Don’t think it ends with Israel. Israel is just the pretext. The prize is broader. The Jewish people have always represented something larger: a people that refused to assimilate to their surrounding society, that carved an identity through ritual, law, memory, and resilience. In a world increasingly allergic to distinctions—between man and woman, citizen and foreigner, reality and fiction—that makes the Jew an existential threat to the new order.
History doesn’t repeat. It evolves. The next pogrom won’t start with a storm trooper. It will start with a stare across the room, a whisper in the hallway, a question that isn’t really a question. It will start with a meme. “Never again” was never meant to be symbolic. It was a vow.
Link: Ayaan Hirsi Ali: Glastonbury—and the Purge of the Jews
[UPDATE] Last update, I referenced a singer named Bob Vylan (legal name Pascal Robinson-Foster) who performed at Glastonbury Festival chanting “Death, Death to the IDF, Death Death to the IDF”
Vylan’s visa has since been cancelled, the band has reportedly been dropped by their agent United Talent Agency (UTA), and their US tour has been cancelled (along with many other global shows).
Karen Diamond, 82, died as a result of severe injuries she suffered in the June 1 antisemitic terror attack in downtown Boulder, Colorado. Per the Times of Israel, Diamond, a longtime member of Bonai Shalom congregation in Boulder, is survived by husband Lou, sons Andrew and Ethan, their wives, and five grandsons. Karen was a beloved member of her community, a was severely injured attending a rally for Gaza hostages earlier this month.
Hostage Update (no change)
There are now currently 49 hostages taken on 10/7 currently in captivity in Gaza (there are 50 hostages remaining in total)
Of the 50 hostages still theoretically in Gaza
28 hostages have been confirmed dead and are currently being held in Gaza
Thus, at most, 22 living hostages could still be in Gaza. It has been reported that only 20 are actually alive.
Hamas is now holding the body of 1 IDF soldier who was killed in 2014 (Lt. Hadar Goldin’s body remains held in the Gaza Strip)
20 hostages remain in captivity and have not been declared dead.
2 hostages are Americans: Meet the Two American Hostages Still Held By Hamas:
Itay Chen died on October 7 defending civilians living in an agricultural area near the Gaza borde
Omer Neutra was killed when his team drove two miles to the border, where Hamas militants ambushed his tank with rocket-propelled grenades.
On October 7th, a total of 251 Israelis were taken hostage.
During the ceasefire deal in November of 2023, 112 hostages were released.
38 hostages were released in the first phase of the 2025 cease fire agreement (including 5 Thai nationals)
202 hostages in total have been released or rescued
The bodies of 47 hostages have been recovered, including 3 mistakenly killed by the military as they tried to escape their captors.
8 hostages have been heroically rescued by troops alive
Casualties (+1)
Sgt. Yaniv Michalovitch, 19, was killed in combat in the northern part of the Gaza Strip
1,932 Israelis have been killed including 881 IDF soldiers and police since October 7th
Iran: 28 Israelis have been killed in Israel from missiles attacks from Iran
The South: 442 IDF soldiers during the ground operation in Gaza have been killed. The toll includes three police officers (two of which were killed in a hostage rescue mission) and two Defense Ministry civilian contractors.
The North: 133 Israelis (85 IDF soldiers) have been killed during the war in Northern Israel
The West Bank: 66 Israelis (27 IDF and Israeli security forces)
Additional Information (according to the IDF):
6,032 (+3 since Sunday) IDF soldiers have been injured since the beginning of the war, including at least 895 (no change since Sunday) who have been severely injured.
2,745 (+2 since Sunday) IDF soldiers have been injured during ground combat in Gaza, including at least 528 (no change Sunday) who have been severely injured.
The Gaza Casualty Count: According to unverified figures from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, 57,012 total deaths have been reported, with a civilian/combatant ratio: 1:1.
[MUST READ] Report: Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza by Andrew Fox with The Henry Jackson Society
Regular sources include JINSA, FDD, IDF, AIPAC, The Paul Singer Foundation, The Institute for National Security Studies, the Alma Research and Education Center, Yediot, Jerusalem Post, IDF Casualty Count, algemeimer, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Institute for the Study of War, Tablet Magazine, Mosaic Magazine, Commentary, The Free Press, The Jewish Institute for Strategy and Security, and the Times of Israel